I’ve been waiting for a crash, since 2017, in the housing and tech sector- nope! This has not happened. Precisely the opposite happened. This puzzles me. I would like to know more. From a very novice perspective, so this is my opinion, I think markets have not crashed for three main technological reasons. Here they are.
Simply put, this is my wild idea. Time will tell and I am sure I am wrong about the details. No one knows who is not privy, but we can estimate.
The first reason is, highly prolific financial technologies and the software engineers to design such systems are in large supply. This is all facilitated by our global communications networks and continuous technological improvements -with each iteration systems get better and faster. So this is a very efficient, global financial super highway with a means to innovate on the spot, nearly.
The reason for reason 1 above why markets have not crashed is because global financial tools on a global communications network present infinite opportunities to do something with your money; to issue credit and send it over in a split second to your account; to invent new ways of sending money to where there is demand for money, you get the idea. This FinTech keeps the markets running you see.
The second reason why markets have not crashed is, we have more people (7 billion) with more computers and smart phones than at any time in history. This means that the reason 1 above- FinTech- has a great big reservoir of potential credit seekers, loan sharks, and businessmen seeking to capitalize on some venture, or provide the money supply to meet the demands of buyers, and sellers. If I am located in mainland China, with an internet connection I can acquire credit from at least five major banks, and set about producing what ever that I would like to sell to the world on Alibaba, for example. If there is a short supply of credit in a particular geographical area, credit can be obtained because we have financial tech and other computer systems that let us know where credit is likely to be needed. Before such “clairvoyant” technologies existed, we would have crashes and down turns that were much more severe. This is not to say that crashes are expunged from history and will never occur. They will occur, but not for the reasons you and I are privy to.
This all means that the game of money could continue for a long time until it stops, but how does it stop? Who pulls the plug if anybody? I have some reasons for that…
I believe the Federal Reserve- you can include all the central banks here of all countries- is aware of the reasons above, and is acting on those principles, but there could be a deeper meaning why they want to continue this game. It, the central bank, means to finally crash the global markets and to destroy the old global paper money. This brings me to why I think 2029-2031 will be the ultimate time frame for when the crash happens. As usual, I could be off. Also, this is rather cryptic and esoteric, but not for the reasons you may think. If you know more information, please share. I do not claim extra ability in this space.
I believe the banks are following some old calendars. Why old? Because this means most people forgot what those calendars are and where to look for them. It would be like me using Morse code to setup a football play. Who would know what I mean besides those who know what I mean? This gives the banks an advantage that they know what they are doing, and you do not know their time line. This is the reason market crashes initiated by the banks cannot be predicted by anyone, how could anybody predict that? If I have a secret, or a hidden meaning only I and my trusted cabal knows, who can guess my schemes? The answer is pretty much nobody. This is a great tool as you can see; it requires no technological innovation. It is a simple scheme of hiding things. A creature of the mind. I am not going to explain why I believe such a thing is possible, so you can take it or leave it.
In conclusion, I think the real disaster will happen between 2029-2031, just like in 1929-1931. I am doubting myself here as well, but this gives me a perspective, and a way to orient myself and to prepare and to watch how the trends are coalescing or digressing. However, given that I am not the only person with such an opinion, I will add that the game could break at any point, but my belief about old calendars remains for the simple reason that it is useful to who ever wants to employ it. It is like the good old Morse code many heard about, but nobody could decipher the code on paper if their life depended on it. Therefore, the best thing you can do is be prepared.
GlobalJack